How to make the transition to autonomous vehicles work for the good of all.

Those who contribute to the creation of companies that will ultimately destroy their jobs should own a piece of those companies going forward.

I am excited for a future in which cars will drive themselves. I’m excited for a future in which trucks, buses, trains, and planes will be piloted by precision instruments, whose algorithms will speed us, our children, and our cargo across the world at a pace and with a regularity that would astonish us today. But mostly I am excited for the millions of people who will not be injured or killed by drunk or overtired drivers.

But I am also conscious that thus far, the costs to the companies who are driving us towards this autonomous future (Uber, Lyft, Gett, etc.) coupled with the far more significant costs to today’s drivers whose livelihoods, health and happiness have been, or soon will be near decimated, seem much too high for either to bare in the long term.

The effects of the above create multiple unhealthy scenarios, but the two that really stand out significantly at this point are as follows:

Firstly, new companies entering the market will face significant challenges due to the sums required to be raised merely to get a foothold into the space, leading to less competition and monopolies, etc. While the second is the fact that millions of people all over the world will soon lose their jobs to this type of automation. To make matters worse, it is these same, soon to be unemployed workers, who by driving, and therefore training and optimizing the software that runs these mega apps, will have built and paved the way for the autonomous vehicles, their operating systems and most importantly their related wealth, and yet will in no way profit from any part of that work, in the long term.

My guess would be that most cab drivers (I’ll focus on them, but this applies to anyone who drives or pilots a machine for travel) don’t fully appreciate what their work is helping to build. Perhaps they are focused merely on the downward trend in their finances, while the stock prices and investment rounds of ride-sharing companies soar upwards into the tens of billions. Perhaps they aren’t tech minded? Perhaps they see lawsuits as a way to reclaim some power? In NY in June a sixth taxi driver, Abdul Saleh aged 59, sadly took his life, and this in only the last eight months. There will be more of this to come as we are just now rounding the corner to what early scale will mean to these companies. 

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So what is to be done? As I mentioned at the top of this piece: Those who help to build the machines that will destroy their jobs should own a piece of the companies that build, own and operate them. If we take this to be a logical premise, and I think it is, then I propose that in order to obtain a license to operate in a city, that ride-sharing platforms like Uber, Lyft, Gett etc, should be required to set aside both an equity pool, and an escrowed sum of money for all of the drivers who work for them. Each hour/mile they drive should count towards a long-term reward in either equity or cash and should be thought of as a sort of automation insurance or pension plan. The reason for this is pretty straightforward to those of us who believe that the long-term economic dignity of those who currently do these jobs should be preserved. But to the tech world and in particular the venture capital world, this benefit might not at first be apparent. Let’s be clear here, any investor in a ride-sharing company is investing in an autonomous future, better algorithms, and an edge over the competition and usually only thinks of the “human capital” costs as something that they will want to protect themselves against should lawsuits arise. The humans themselves? Well, my guess would be that they don’t really factor into the equation much beyond that.

In the case of workers who face a risk of being replaced by automation, I believe that government could, and should, play a massively constructive role in bringing positive change through the above-proposed model to this and other sectors (accounting, legal, search, music etc) in which people train algorithms and AI’s to perform jobs that will replace them.

If every mile, hour, or route driven represented a long-term benefit to the person that drove it, and to the company for whom they work, as well as to their investor’s long-term financial gain, then this is a triple win. If we are incrementally and long-term rewarded when we train an algorithm or help to build a machine with equity in that machine, then we will be incentivized, not only to do a better job but will be better prepared for, and in fact, may in some cases even welcome an end to the work.

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